Soda ash production trend, high inventory, potential incremental trend, declining supply and demand, and declining market base demand.
From the statistics of soda ash consumption from 2017 to 2021, downstream consumption shows a steady and rising trend, and individual industries grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.32%. For soda ash, the downstream is divided into light soda ash downstream and heavy soda ash downstream. Among them, the downstream of light soda ash is relatively saturated, the annual change is small, and the demand for soda ash is relatively stable. The downstream performance of heavy soda ash increased, mainly reflected in the float glass and photovoltaic glass industries. According to statistics from Longzhong Information, the consumption of soda ash in 2017 was 25.39 million tons. In 2018, the consumption was 25.03 million tons, showing a downward trend year-on-year. Some downstream industries were affected by environmental protection, and the installations were shut down or reduced. In 2019 and 2020, the consumption was 26.45 million tons, which remained stable. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the performance was weak in the first half of the year, and basically returned to normal in the second half, and the price of soda ash was low, and the downstream purchasing mentality was positive. In 2021, the demand for soda ash will show an increasing trend, and the demand is mainly concentrated in photovoltaics and float. For 2022, the soda ash market is still worth looking forward to. It is expected that the overall demand will maintain an upward trend. The increase in demand is mainly reflected in the potential increase of photovoltaics. In addition, there will be a small increase in light-weight individual industries.
According to UPC data monitoring, as of March 10, 2022, the daily melting volume of domestic float glass was 170,600 tons, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 44,980 tons per day. According to the current investment plan of the company, there are 9 potential new float glass production lines with a total capacity of 6,880 tons/day, 12 potential resumption production lines with a capacity of 8,700 tons/day, and 9 cold repair production lines with a capacity of 5,700 tons/day. Daily, the net increase in production capacity is 9,880 tons per day, and the specific production line change time depends on the market. In addition, some production lines have reached the time limit for cold repair, but there is no maintenance plan yet, profit support, water discharge time is continuously delayed, or overheat repair has been carried out. More likely to release water. In addition to the float method, the potential demand for photovoltaic glass in 2022 is expected to be more worth looking forward to. According to statistics, construction has already started in 2022, and there are plans to put in an additional total daily capacity of about 56,000 tons. Considering the general market conditions of the current photovoltaic industry, as well as low profits and high raw materials, there are certain restrictions on the deployment of production lines. Taking into account various factors, it is expected to be released at around 30-40% in 2022. The demand for soda ash is analyzed from the perspective of photovoltaics. Soda ash companies maintain a high inventory and remain optimistic about the trend of soda ash. It is also based on the potential demand of photovoltaics to support soda ash. price. The progress of photovoltaic deployment is related to the growth rate of soda ash demand and the soda ash supply and demand pattern.
UPC information data monitoring, for some glass enterprises soda ash inventory statistics, as of the end of February, the weighted inventory days were 34.5 days, maintaining normal inventory. Different regions have different inventories among companies. Glass companies close to the delivery warehouse have relatively high inventories, and the price is appropriate to replenish. Recently, the disk price has fluctuated, the price is superior to that of the alkali plant, the delivery warehouse has been actively traded, and it is expected that the downstream inventory is expected to increase. For the downstream of light soda ash, the inventory of soda ash is low, and the purchase is mainly on-demand, the market sentiment is weak, and the purchase is relatively cautious.
Potential incremental cash demand is expected to increase
From the perspective of the demand side, the demand for light weight is relatively stable, the increase in demand is limited, and individual industries increase the volume. The demand for heavy soda ash is mainly concentrated in the photovoltaic industry, with high expectations. Overall, the demand for soda ash will increase steadily in 2022.
Supply and demand game 2022 soda ash opportunities and challenges coexist
Opportunities, supply increment is limited, production capacity is withdrawn, production is expected to show a downward trend, downstream demand is stable and rising, and the potential increase in photovoltaics is large. The soda ash market in 2022 can be expected.
Challenges, high soda ash inventory, real estate conditions, the progress of potential incremental photovoltaics, and other downstream operations, the impact of the epidemic, etc., will pose certain challenges to the soda ash market in 2022.